L’IA è in una bolla? Hype, speranza e dura realtà

Few technologies have ever captured global attention as quickly as artificial intelligence has since late 2022. In little more than two years, AI transformed from a promising research field into a cultural and economic phenomenon. Corporate investment hit $250 billion in 2024 — a thirteen-fold jump from 2014 — while in just the first half of 2025, AI startups raised $83 billion , representing 58% of all venture funding . More than 500 AI unicorns now exist, many with little revenue and valuations averaging $5.4 billion . This is the kind of exuberance that makes even seasoned investors uneasy. And it raises a question that’s becoming harder to ignore: are we living through an AI revolution, or inflating an AI bubble? The answer, frustratingly, is complicated — because both stories are true at once. The Exuberance: When Valuations Drift From Reality The froth in the AI market is hard to overlook. Startups with no revenue and, in some cases, no product at all are raising multi-billion-dollar rounds. A pair of the most cited examples — Thinking Machines Lab and Safe Superintelligence — secured $2 billion each at valuations of $12 billion and $32 billion , respectively, despite having no commercial traction. Even Sam Altman, who arguably benefits more than anyone from AI enthusiasm, has warned that much of the startup funding environment is “not rational,” and admitted plainly: “Yes, we’re in an AI bubble.” In almost the same breath, he insists that AI is also “the most important thing to happen in a very long time.” That paradox is the mood of the moment. Fear of missing out is doing a lot of the work. Nearly half of all venture dollars now flow into AI, up from about 20% just a few years ago, while non-AI funding has fallen to multi-year lows. The stock market echoes the same imbalance. Tech companies now make up 34% of the S&P 500 , surpassing the height of the dot-com era. A still-unprofitable OpenAI has been floated at a $500 billion valuation, putting a three-year-old product (ChatGPT) among the world’s most valuable franchises. This isn’t tinkering at the edges; it’s markets pulling decades of hoped-for profit into the present. The structures around thes…